Home  >  News
Company News
Industry News
Strong rebound in the shipping market is short-lived but experts worry

According to "Economic Information Daily" reported this year, the container transport market has grown rapidly, recently Maersk and other shipping giant China Ocean freight rates are raised, the main international routes have shown a strong rebound. At the same time, the Baltic index ended down 35 consecutive days after bottoming out.

But experts are cautiously optimistic, many experts said, the Baltic index will be in the low shock, the second half of the container market is also facing the pressure of demand may be slowing, the arrival of the debt crisis in Europe will also allow the recovery of the original becomes clearer prospect complicated.

After falling for 35 consecutive trading days, that the international dry bulk shipping boom of the Baltic Sea (BDI) index, and finally ushered in a wave of rally. As of midday on August 3, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) to close at 1,977 points, up 0.5% over the July 15th low of 1,700 points when the rise of 16.3%.

July 30, the Shanghai Shipping Exchange, China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) to 1,209.06 points, before the financial crisis in one fell swoop CCFI than the highest value. In the end of 2009, this index was only 995.94 points.

Trade rebound quickly transmitted to the container shipping industry, with EU, U.S., China and Southeast Asia markets strong popular routes, Maersk Line announced that due to an emergency container container will increase "peak season surcharge" and also announced the start of the China Ocean income "container shortage surcharge. " As of the end of June, the European route from China to the scale of the effective capacity level of more than 7.77% over the same period last year.

Hard to find a cabinet port, shipping "barometer" of the temperature soared, as if to imply that the global economy has ushered in another spring. But many experts say that the second half of container shipping are also facing pressure from a possible slowdown in demand. On the one hand, European and American markets are there signs of slowing consumer demand, while domestic front, the export tax rebate policy adjustment and the expectation of RMB appreciation will have an impact in the second half of the shipping market. GF Securities also believes that, PMI index for two consecutive months of decline indicates that China's export volume will gradually lower the container market demand will be weakened.

In other words, export growth may slow down by the impact of container liner shipping or will be difficult to sustain high growth. China Shipping Group President Li Shaode that, in the second half, especially in the fourth quarter, economic growth declined, the shipping market volatility to increase the possibility.

In addition, BDI although the end of the longest losing streak since 1995 ─ ─ 35 consecutive days of decline, but accept the "Economic Information Daily" interviewed a number of industry experts to determine the fundamentals of the industry is not optimistic.

China Shipbuilding Industry Center for Economic Research, said Zhang Jing, chief researcher package, not simply to BDI index to determine whether the industry to pick up, after the depth of the pullback last month, there are some fluctuations up is normal, but still dry bulk carrier there is a big risk, mainly due to the lack of effective traffic growth, excess capacity is still very serious, BDI long term volatility will remain low.

Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce research director Karen Kwok world economy and trade, said in the first half, especially in the first quarter, faster than the national growth of trade has become an important force for national economic growth. However, after entering the second quarter, with the debt crisis intensified in Europe, the market for fear of making policy tightening has slowed down the pace of economic growth. In the second half, with the effect of the debt crisis in Europe is gradually emerging, export momentum is expected to be relaxed.

CASS Institute of World Economics Song Hong, director of international trade, also said that the debt crisis in Europe had gradually become clear to complicate the prospects of recovery. In addition, the countries have a different understanding of the economic stimulus, which coordinated the global economy more difficult. These uncertainties will slow the recovery process of trade, but overall, the global economy will resume growth, foreign trade situation will not deteriorate, will continue to grow.

School of Economics, Renmin University of China Professor Wang Jinbin, said the rise in short-term fluctuations in consumption and investment will be insufficient to represent the strong growth in international trade can not be said that there will be continued strong growth. Compared to the first quarter of this year, the U.S. economy is slowing down economic growth in the second quarter, European concerns about the debt crisis still exists, if the United States, European economic growth is expected to uncertainty, even a "sub-depression" risk, global trade does not appear strong growth. However, encouraging growth in emerging economies, which to some extent, driving growth of global trade, there will be no sustained strong growth. He said the recovery in global trade and achieve a better level of history, take some time, such as about two years.

Copyright: Shenzhen Great Reliance Logistics co.,ltd. Record: 粤ICP备06037429号